科學家在維也納歐洲肥胖大會上公布的最新報告指出，全球范圍內肥胖癥患者的比例正在急速上升，預計2045年將增加到22%。這意味著，全球約1/4的人將成為肥胖癥患者。如果按照目前的趨勢，那么到2045年全球將有1/8的人患2型糖尿病。

One in eight people in the world will have type 2 diabetes by 2045 if obesity continues to climb at the present rate, according to a new study.

根據一項新研究，如果肥胖癥按照目前的速度發展下去，那么到2045年全球將有1/8的人患2型糖尿病。

【科普】

2型糖尿病原名叫成人發病型糖尿病，多在35～40歲之后發病，占糖尿病患者90%以上。導致2型糖尿病的主要誘因包括肥胖、體力活動過少和應激。由于上述誘因，患者的胰島素分泌能力及身體對胰島素的敏感性逐漸降低，血糖升高，導致糖尿病。

Last year, 14% of the global population was obese and 9% had type 2 diabetes. By 2045, 22% will be obese and 14% will be suffering from type 2 diabetes, estimates presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Vienna suggest.

2017年，全球肥胖癥發病率為14%，2 型糖尿病發病率為9%。維也納歐洲肥胖大會上公布的預測認為，到2045年，全球將有22%的人患肥胖癥，14%的人患2型糖尿病。

The implications of the expanding numbers are severe for health systems in every country. Diabetes UK estimates that the NHS spends ￡14 billion?a year on the disease already, which is about 10% of its budget. People with diabetes need monitoring, treatment and care for the serious potential complications which can include amputations and blindness.

這一不斷攀升的數字讓各國衛生系統面臨嚴峻考驗。據英國糖尿病協會估計，英國國民醫療服務體系每年在糖尿病方面的開支為140億英鎊（約合人民幣1195億元），占其預算的10%。糖尿病可引發截肢、失明等嚴重的并發癥，因此患者需要接受監測、治療和護理。

The study was carried out by scientists funded by the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, which makes diabetes treatments, together with the Steno Diabetes Centre in Gentofte, Denmark, and University College London. They say that to prevent type 2 diabetes rates rising above 10%, obesity levels must come down by a quarter.

這項研究由制藥公司諾和諾德資助，該公司與位于丹麥根措夫特的Steno糖尿病中心和倫敦大學學院合作，提供糖尿病的治療方案。他們認為，為了防止2型糖尿病的發病率上升到10%以上，肥胖癥患者必須減少1/4。

“The global prevalence of obesity and diabetes is projected to increase dramatically unless prevention of obesity is significantly intensified. Developing effective global programs to reduce obesity offer the best opportunity to slow or stabilize the unsustainable prevalence of diabetes. The first step must be the recognition of the challenge that obesity presents and the mobilization of social service and disease prevention resources to slow the progression of these two conditions,” said Dr Alan Moses of Novo Nordisk Research and Development in S?borg, Denmark.

丹麥索伯格諾和諾德研發中心的阿倫?摩斯博士稱：“若不大力加強對肥胖癥的預防，預計肥胖癥和糖尿病的全球發病率將大幅增加。制定有效的全球“減肥”計劃，是減緩或穩定糖尿病不可持續流行的最佳機會。首先，必須認識到肥胖癥帶來的挑戰，調動社會服務和疾病預防資源，以減緩肥胖癥和糖尿病的發展。”

The researchers have calculated the likely rise in obesity for individual countries. If current trends in the US continue, obesity will increase from 39% in 2017 to 55% in 2045, and diabetes rates from 14% to 18%. To keep diabetes rates in the US stable between 2017 and 2045, obesity must fall from 38% today to 28%.

研究人員計算了各國肥胖癥的上升趨勢。如果目前的趨勢繼續下去，到2045年，美國的肥胖癥患病率將從2017年的39%上升到55%，糖尿病的患病率將從14%上升到18%。為了使美國的糖尿病發病率在2017-2045年間保持不變，肥胖癥患病率必須從目前的38%下降到28%。

In the UK, they say, current trends predict that obesity will rise from 32% today to 48% in 2045, while diabetes levels will rise from 10.2% to 12.6%. To stabilize UK diabetes rates at 10%, obesity prevalence must fall from 32% to 24%.

研究人員稱，按照目前趨勢，到2045年，英國的肥胖癥發病率將從當下的32%增加到48%，而糖尿病發病率將從10.2%增加到12.6%。為了使英國的糖尿病發病率穩定在10%，肥胖癥患病率必須從32%下降到24%.

“Each country is different based on unique genetic, social and environmental conditions which is why there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach that will work. Individual countries must work on the best strategy for them,” said Moses.

“每個國家基于其獨特的基因、社會和環境因素，面臨的情況有所不同，因此沒有‘萬能’的方法。各國都必須找到最適合自己的對策。”

The tide could be turned, he said, “but it will take aggressive and coordinated action to reduce obesity and individual cities should play a key role in confronting the issues around obesity.”

摩斯博士稱，這種趨勢可以逆轉，“但要降低肥胖癥發病率，需要積極協調的行動，而每座城市都應該在對抗肥胖問題上發揮重要作用。”

英文來源：衛報

編譯：董靜

審校：yaning