當(dāng)今世界局勢(shì)正在發(fā)生諸多新變化，且無(wú)不與美中俄三角關(guān)系相牽連。而導(dǎo)致這種變化的首要因素，則是美國(guó)特朗普政府的做法過(guò)于離譜。

The Trump administration's outrageous behavior has changed the US-China-Russia relationship, and so, the world.

8月以來(lái)，美國(guó)政府不斷拋出挑釁中國(guó)和遏制俄羅斯的舉措。例如，8月7日宣布完成對(duì)價(jià)值160億美元中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品加征新關(guān)稅的計(jì)劃，擬于8月23日起生效；8月8日把“毒氣門”事件抖了出來(lái)，加大對(duì)俄羅斯的制裁；8月9日白宮宣布計(jì)劃到2020年組建一支太空軍，作為第六個(gè)作戰(zhàn)軍種，宣稱這是因?yàn)橹卸碚故镜哪芰?gòu)成了“前所未有的新危險(xiǎn)”；8月13日特朗普簽署2019年度國(guó)防授權(quán)法案，軍費(fèi)總額達(dá)到7160億美元，比上年增長(zhǎng)2.6%，為九年來(lái)最大漲幅，等等。

Since early August, the Trump administration has constantly introduced measures to provoke China and contain Russia. It announced an additional $16 billion tariff plan on imports from China; it brought up the ex-spy poisoning case again, and increased sanctions on Russia; it announced a plan to build a space force by 2020 as a new military branch to counter 'unprecedented new dangers' posed by China and Russia; it increased US military expenditure by 2.6% from the previous year, the largest increase in 9 years.

人們不得不思考如此攪局帶來(lái)的后果。

People must think about the possible consequences.

先談美國(guó)對(duì)華關(guān)系。美方挑起貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，遠(yuǎn)非像美國(guó)政府自夸的那樣“成功”。8月4日美國(guó)福布斯網(wǎng)站刊載署名文章《美國(guó)正打贏對(duì)華貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是危險(xiǎn)的胡話》，文章稱，天真的美國(guó)政府貿(mào)易團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)自己似乎擊中了中國(guó)的要害感到有點(diǎn)飄飄然。這個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)明顯低估了中國(guó)人的決心、信念以及耐心。8月7日IMF首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家?jiàn)W布斯特費(fèi)爾德稱，美國(guó)試圖通過(guò)加征關(guān)稅來(lái)削減貿(mào)易逆差的做法是誤入歧途，美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差的根源不在貿(mào)易本身而在于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)。

First, on relations with China. The trade war waged by the US has not been successful.Let me just cite two examples. On 4 August, Forbes published a bylined article The Dangerous Myth The US Is Winning The Trade War with China, stating that the na?ve Trump trade team is becoming a bit giddy about seemingly making inroads into the belly of the China trade beast while underestimating the determination, the conviction, and patience of the Chinese. On 7 August, IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld described the US' new tariffs on imports from China to reduce its trade deficit as misguided. The root cause of the US trade deficits lies not in trade per se but rather in the macro economy.

美國(guó)政府應(yīng)該明白，中美貿(mào)易額占中國(guó)外貿(mào)總額約15%，中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)之外的國(guó)際貿(mào)易存在巨大增長(zhǎng)潛力，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)本身仍有尚未開(kāi)發(fā)的巨大潛能。中國(guó)有信心有能力應(yīng)對(duì)各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)挑戰(zhàn)。

The Trump administration should be aware of three basic facts: trade with the US is about 15% of China's external trade; there is huge potential for it to increase its trade with other countries; and there is still enormous untapped potential in the Chinese economy. Therefore, China has the confidence and capacity to deal with various risks and challenges.

面對(duì)中美關(guān)系的嚴(yán)峻性，有人說(shuō)美國(guó)對(duì)華戰(zhàn)略在發(fā)生質(zhì)變，論據(jù)是影響當(dāng)前美國(guó)對(duì)華政策最重要的非常規(guī)因素（特朗普現(xiàn)象）與最重要的常規(guī)因素（兩國(guó)實(shí)力對(duì)比與相互認(rèn)知）的加速變遷在2017年底出現(xiàn)了匯合，從而在美國(guó)政治精英中形成一種自尼克松訪華以來(lái)前所未有的對(duì)華負(fù)面共識(shí)，在這種共識(shí)的推動(dòng)下，美國(guó)對(duì)華政策正在經(jīng)歷質(zhì)變。

Some people believe that America's China strategy is changing fundamentally. They argue that the most important unconventional factor (the Trump phenomenon) and the most important conventional factor (the desire for a balance of power) shaping the US' China policy have combined to form a negative view of China unseen since President Richard Nixon's trip to China in 1972.

也有另一種看法，認(rèn)為中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系不會(huì)走向全面對(duì)抗，因?yàn)楫?dāng)前中美貿(mào)易關(guān)系是深度交融、相互依賴的。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體制下，通過(guò)國(guó)際貿(mào)易、國(guó)際投資、人員交往和人力資本互通這三條重要渠道，中美兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)之間存在著千絲萬(wàn)縷的聯(lián)系。

Others don't think China and the US' trade relations will lead to full confrontation, because their two economies are deeply intertwined and interdependent. Within the global economic regime, the two economies have developed countless ties through trade, investment, and exchanges of personnel and human capital.

筆者深信，中美關(guān)系的大框架不會(huì)輕易改變。其一，雙方互有長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的利益需要，且難說(shuō)誰(shuí)的需要更多。其二，美國(guó)對(duì)華歷來(lái)采取接觸加遏制的方針，且交替使用。當(dāng)下美國(guó)氣勢(shì)洶洶，一旦痛定思痛，又會(huì)接觸。嚇唬中國(guó)人從來(lái)不管用。其三，中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)的政策穩(wěn)定性極強(qiáng)，盡管現(xiàn)在對(duì)方煩躁不安，甚至氣急敗壞，但人們看到習(xí)近平主席卻不動(dòng)聲色，穩(wěn)如泰山。

I deeply believe that the overall framework of China-US relations will not easily change. First, the two countries need each other for their long-term interests. It is not a situation where one country needs the other more. Second, towards China, the US has always combined engagement with containment and used the two alternately. Though seemingly in full fury now, the US will return to engagement again when memories of painful past experiences come back. Attempts to scare the Chinese have never worked. Third, Chinese policy towards the US is super stable. In front of the agitated and sometimes flustered US, President Xi Jinping is still composed and firm like a rock.

美方應(yīng)該懂得一個(gè)通俗的道理：中國(guó)無(wú)意改變美國(guó)，也不想取代美國(guó)；美國(guó)無(wú)法左右中國(guó)，更不可能阻止中國(guó)的發(fā)展。中美兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體加強(qiáng)合作，不僅事關(guān)中美兩國(guó)，也是國(guó)際社會(huì)之需，是世界人民所盼。

The US must understand that China does not intend to change or replace it and that it cannot determine China's positions or prevent it from development. Increased collaboration between the two largest economies in the world not only affects them but is also needed by the international community and desired by all people in the world.

再談美國(guó)對(duì)俄關(guān)系。微妙的是，特朗普既想與普京親近，卻又不停地制裁俄羅斯。矛盾糾結(jié)，章法混亂。

Now, onto US-Russia relations. The US is imposing more sanctions on China while Trump wants to develop a closer relationship with Putin.

美國(guó)應(yīng)該了解，普京主導(dǎo)下的俄羅斯有幾條原則是不會(huì)變的。一是要把俄羅斯打造成世界一流國(guó)家；二是要建立適合俄羅斯國(guó)情的發(fā)展模式；三是奉行全方位外交，反對(duì)單極世界。普京雄心勃勃，但前進(jìn)道路上障礙重重。俄方希望與美國(guó)保持“建設(shè)性關(guān)系”。

The US should be aware that a Russia led by Vladimir Putin will follow several principles. First, Russia will strive to become a first-class country. Second, Russia will explore a development model suited to its national conditions. Third, Russia will oppose a unipolar world. Putin is ambitious despite the many obstacles ahead. Russia wishes to maintain a 'constructive relationship' with the US.

特朗普對(duì)俄竭力誘惑，試圖“聯(lián)俄反中”。對(duì)此俄羅斯心知肚明，絕對(duì)不會(huì)舍本求末。俄羅斯戰(zhàn)略研究所網(wǎng)站7月27日的文章稱，美國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人試圖離間俄羅斯與中國(guó)，但俄羅斯不會(huì)被特朗普的阿諛?lè)畛泻臀⑿Α叭诨薄?/p>

President Trump has done everything he can to pull Russia into an alliance against China. An article published on 27 July on the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies website describes US behavior as sowing discord between Russia and China and declares that Russia will not be 'melted' by Trump's flattery and smiles.

中俄關(guān)系的成熟性和穩(wěn)定性，讓美國(guó)嫉妒、擔(dān)憂，其實(shí)是多余的。美國(guó)對(duì)華對(duì)俄“兩個(gè)拳頭打人”，結(jié)果推動(dòng)中俄關(guān)系更加緊密。

The level of maturity and stability of China-Russia relations causes US envy and concern, which is rather unnecessary. Attempts to fight Russia and China at the same time have contributed to a closer relationship between the two.

傳統(tǒng)因素、現(xiàn)實(shí)因素和特殊因素，使美中俄三角關(guān)系牽動(dòng)著世界全局。美國(guó)方面不要認(rèn)為維系世界霸權(quán)是天經(jīng)地義的，不要把中國(guó)堅(jiān)持和平發(fā)展、和平共處視為軟弱，不要僅從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度看低俄羅斯，更不要忽視聯(lián)合國(guó)的核心地位，得意時(shí)凌駕于聯(lián)合國(guó)之上，失意時(shí)置身于聯(lián)合國(guó)之外。

The US should not try to sustain its hegemony all over the world, obstruct China's pursuit of peaceful development, or look down on Russia on the basis of its economic growth. More importantly, it should not ignore the central role of the UN.

世界形勢(shì)風(fēng)云變幻，不確定性固然是常態(tài)，但和平發(fā)展畢竟是時(shí)代主流，合作共贏已成全球共識(shí)。世界上的事情紛繁復(fù)雜，不是做生意，打打殺殺不是全球治理的辦法。“吃一塹長(zhǎng)一智”對(duì)特朗普政府應(yīng)該是適用的。

The world situation is changing all the time, and there are a lot of uncertainties. Yet peaceful development is still the mainstream and win-win cooperation is pursued by all. Fighting is not a means of global governance. The Trump administration should learn from its mistakes.

作者：俞邃，中國(guó)當(dāng)代世界研究中心教授

（來(lái)源：中美聚焦網(wǎng)，編輯：Helen）