中國人民銀行開展4000億元中期借貸便利（MLF）操作，20億元7天公開市場逆回購操作，中標利率均下降10個基點，分別是2.75%和2%。本次央行降息超出市場預期。央行發布二季度貨幣政策執行報告，強化了對“不搞大水漫灌”的關注。市場預期流動性仍將保持寬松。央行在當前時點降息10個基點，筆者理解主要有以下三個原因。

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, recently lowered the rate on 400 billion yuan ($58.89 billion) of one-year medium-term lending facility loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points to 2.75 percent. It also conducted 2 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 2 percent, down from 2.1 percent.
中國人民銀行開展4000億元中期借貸便利（MLF）操作，20億元7天公開市場逆回購操作，中標利率均下降10個基點，分別是2.75%和2%。

It was an unexpected cut in interest rates. In China's second-quarter monetary policy report, the PBOC strengthened its focus on refraining from adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies. The market expects liquidity to remain ample. As for the 10 bps interest rate cuts by the central bank, we understand they were carried out mainly for the following three reasons.
本次央行降息超出市場預期。央行發布二季度貨幣政策執行報告，強化了對“不搞大水漫灌”的關注。市場預期流動性仍將保持寬松。央行在當前時點降息10個基點，筆者理解主要有以下三個原因。

First, there is a rising need for cutting interest rates to support the real economy. Growth of some key economic data slowed in July from June, which does not augur well for a strong economic recovery in the third quarter and points to a deep-seated lack of growth momentum. On the one hand, demand declined owing to unsolved real estate problems. And given the increased risk of recession in Europe and the United States, the sword of Damocles is still hanging above the slowing export growth rate, despite exports' short-term resilience.
一是，降息支持實體經濟的必要性提升。7月經濟增長數據普遍較6月回落，三季度以來并未展現出經濟強勁復蘇的面貌，折射出深層次動力不足的問題。一方面是需求收縮，房地產問題仍待解決。出口短期雖有韌性，但考慮到歐美經濟衰退的風險在加大，出口增速下行的“達摩克利斯之劍”仍懸。

On the other hand, overall market expectations are weak. During the three-year COVID-19 pandemic, some have been suffering deteriorating balance sheets, hampering consumption recovery. Meanwhile, enterprises still face problems like disruptions to production and logistics as well as insufficient demand, and enterprises do not have a strong willingness to use tax credit refunds to recycle into expanding investment.
另一方面是預期偏弱。疫情持續時間已近三年，部分居民資產負債表趨向惡化，消費復蘇阻礙重重；企業生產物流受阻、需求不足問題延續，留抵退稅轉化為投資擴張的意愿偏弱。

Second, credit and social financing declined in July. Limited improvements in business and consumer confidence failed to boost demand for loans to the real economy. So far this year, social financing data have fluctuated greatly. As a result, it is still necessary to further reduce interest rates to stimulate loan demand.
二是，7月份信貸和社會融資規模回落。居民和企業信心改善有限，使得實體經濟貸款需求疲弱。今年以來，社融數據“一波三折”。因此，仍有必要進一步降息刺激貸款需求。

Third, inflation and exchange rates reduced their role of acting as constraints, and it is time for a more discretionary monetary policy. In terms of internal inflation, growth rates of the consumer price index and the producer price index for July were both lower than market expectations, and the growth in core CPI also slowed in July. Meanwhile, the proportion of pork prices in the CPI slipped from 2.3 percent in early 2021 to 1.3 percent in July 2022 based on the Laspeyres Price Index. Therefore, subsequent inflation levels due to rising pork prices may be less drastic than previously thought.
三是，通脹與匯率兩大約束暫有緩解，貨幣政策相機抉擇的時間窗口打開。就內部通脹而言，7月消費者價格指數（CPI）和生產者價格指數（PPI）同比增速雙雙低于市場預期，核心CPI增速也有下行。同時，因拉氏指數的核算方法，豬肉占CPI的權重已自2021年初的2.3%下滑至2022年7月的1.3%，這意味著后續“豬通脹”的壓力可能不及市場的悲觀預期。

As for external constraints, the latest US July consumer inflation data came in weaker than forecast, indicating a peak in overseas inflation. The market altered its expectations for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. The US dollar index fell, and the renminbi exchange rate rose steadily.
就外部約束而言，最新公布的美國7月物價數據低于市場預期，海外通脹出現更多見頂跡象，市場對美聯儲9月加息的預期降溫，美元指數有所回落，人民幣匯率穩中有升。

International capital flows are expected to achieve marginal improvements due to domestic economic recovery and lower expectations for overseas central banks to hike rates. Therefore, we may interpret the exchange rate to be "adhering to bottom-line thinking", as written in China's second-quarter monetary policy report, which better allows for two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate and lets the exchange rate play its role as an internal and external balance regulator under the new situation of an improved external environment and international capital flows.
在國內經濟復蘇、海外央行加息預期緩和的背景下，國際資本流動形勢有望迎來邊際改善。二季度貨幣政策執行報告強調匯率“堅持底線思維”，或意味著外部環境和國際資本流動形勢緩和下，可適當加大對匯率雙向波動的容忍度，發揮其內外平衡調節器的作用。

Liquidity has continued to ease this year since early April, and the rate cuts sent a positive policy signal. On the one hand, the seven-day reverse repo rate averaged only 1.56 percent in July and dropped to 1.34 percent since the beginning of August, far below the policy rate of 2.1 percent.
今年4月初以來，貨幣流動性不斷走向寬松，本次政策利率下調釋放出積極的政策信號。一方面，7天回購利率7月均值僅1.56%，8月以來更低至1.34%，遠低于政策利率的2.1%。

On the other hand, the cost of bank liabilities fell quickly. According to a news conference on financial statistics in the first half, the interest rate on newly absorbed time deposits was 2.5 percent in June, 16 bps lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, the cost of interbank liabilities fell sharply just as the money market interest rate did, and the spread between the issuance interest rate of one-year interbank certificates of deposit and MLF loans expanded, which averaged 27 bps in the first quarter and expanded to 60 bps in July and 81 bps since the beginning of August.
另一方面，銀行負債成本較快下行。上半年金融統計數據新聞發布會表示，6月份新吸收定期存款利率為2.5%，比上年同期低16個基點。同業負債成本也跟隨貨幣市場利率較快下行，存單利率與MLF之間的點差擴大：“MLF-股份制銀行一年期同業存單發行利率”的差值，一季度的均值為27個基點，7月擴大至60個基點，8月以來更擴大至81個基點。

The main reasons for the contraction of MLF loans are that banks have insufficient demand for high-cost MLF funds and the divergence between policy rates and market rates is huge, reducing the leading effect of MLF policy rates on the cost of bank liabilities, so there is a great need for convergence between policy rates and market rates.
而本次MLF價降量縮的原因主要在于，銀行對于成本偏高的MLF資金需求不足；因政策利率與市場利率的背離已較為嚴重，MLF政策利率對銀行負債成本的指引作用有所下滑，政策利率與市場利率的收斂存在必要性。

In order to employ monetary policy to support the real economy, it is urgent to maintain the stability of total credit. Against the backdrop of advance issuance of government bonds, we need to pay more attention to the growth rate of aggregate financing to the real economy, excluding government bonds.
貨幣政策要支持實體經濟，亟需解決“穩信用”的持續性問題。在政府債發行前置，更需關注剔除政府債后的社融存量增速。

We expect to see some monetary policy tools in the second half. This will increase medium and long-term lending. In the fields of technological innovation and green development, if funding is not as expected, it can be optimized by improving financial support in relending or extending the scope of funding applications. In the field of traditional infrastructure, policy-related and developmental financial instruments are combined with an 800 billion yuan increase in policy banks' lending quotas to fund infrastructure projects, thus leveraging infrastructure financing.
下半年還可期待的貨幣政策工具包括：加大中長期貸款的投放力度。在科技創新和綠色領域，如資金投放不及預期，可從提升再貸款資金支持比例、推廣適用領域等方面優化拓展空間；在傳統基建領域方面，政策性、開發性金融工具，政策性銀行新增的8000億元貸款額度相互配合，著眼于撬動配套的基建融資。

Also, there is a need to fully meet the credit needs of micro and small businesses, real estate and enterprises affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is advisable that the PBOC considers lowering relending rates for the agriculture sector and small businesses once more by 10 to 25 bps.
此外，充分滿足普惠小微領域、房地產領域、及疫情受損行業企業的信貸需求。可考慮進一步下調支農支小再貸款利率10至25個基點。

In addition, there is a need to stimulate demand for lending by improving the market reform mechanism for deposit rates and further lowering deposit rates, so the over-five-year loan prime rate may be reduced notably. Meanwhile, the PBOC could cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point when necessary, which would lead to a reduction in LPR by 5 bps.
通過完善存款利率市場化改革機制、進一步壓降存款利率，刺激貸款需求，或可帶動5年期貸款基礎利率（LPR）更大幅度下行。同時，還可適時降準0.25至0.5個百分點以推動LPR再下行5個基點。

What needs to be emphasized is that according to current cuts in policy interest rates and lending rates, monetary policy is extending more support to the real economy, which is comparable to the period when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. However, the current economic recovery is clearly weaker than at that time, so monetary policy easing will continue.
需要強調的是，以當前政策利率、貸款利率的調降幅度看，貨幣政策對實體經濟的支持力度不亞于2020年新冠疫情后，但當前經濟復蘇的力度較當時要遜色，因此貨幣政策寬松的態勢應會延續。

The writers are Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities Co Ltd and director of the China Chief Economist Forum, and Zhang Lu and Chang Yixin, analysts at Ping An Securities.
作者：鐘正生/張璐/常藝馨（鐘正生為平安證券首席經濟學家、中國首席經濟學家論壇理事）

Their views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
文章觀點并不代表本網站立場。

編輯：董靜
來源：中國日報