往年一到感恩節(jié)和圣誕季，美國人都會給許多親友同事送去節(jié)日禮物，但是今年美國人在送禮上可能不會那么大方了，飛漲的物價迫使人們壓縮送禮開支，送禮購物季也將不再瘋狂。

The kids, the grandparents, the babysitter, maybe your favorite aunt or uncle. That’s it.

孩子、祖父母、保姆，也許還有你最親的姑姑或叔叔。要送禮的人就這么多。

You can blame inflation for families knocking friends, co-workers and extended families off your holiday gift lists this year.

今年美國家庭只能把朋友、同事和親戚從節(jié)日送禮名單上移除，要怪就怪通貨膨脹。

Persistent inflation – consumer prices increased by 8.5% in July over last year – has reshaped how Americans are budgeting for everyday necessities and occasional indulgences. Prices are up for everything from groceries to clothing, shoes, stationery items and more.

持續(xù)的通脹——7月消費者價格同比上漲8.5%——已經(jīng)改變了美國人花費在日常必需品和偶爾放縱上的預(yù)算。從食品雜貨到服裝、鞋、文具等各種商品的價格都上漲了。

It’s also forced many households to tap into their savings or rack up more credit card debt just to keep up with the higher cost of living. Over the past year, credit card debt has jumped by $100 billion, or 13%, the biggest percentage increase in more than 20 years.

通脹導(dǎo)致的生活成本上升還迫使許多家庭為了維持生活而動用存款或欠下更多信用卡債務(wù)。過去一年來，美國的信用卡債務(wù)增加了1000億美元，漲幅高達(dá)13%，創(chuàng)下20多年來的最大漲幅。

What does all this mean for the upcoming 2022 holiday shopping season? Less. A lot less.

所有這些對即將到來的2022節(jié)日購物季意味著什么呢？意味著人們會減少開支，而且是大減。

It’ll be a stark contrast from last year’s robust holiday performance, according to a new forecast from consulting firm Deloitte.

咨詢公司德勤的最新預(yù)測顯示，今年的節(jié)日銷售業(yè)績將與去年形成強烈反差。

It expects retail sales for the key year-end gift-buying months of November, December and January to increase 4% to 6%. This compares with a robust 15.1% increase for the same time frame last year.

德勤預(yù)期年末送禮季（11月、12月和1月）的零售額將比其他月份增長4%到6%。相比之下，去年同期的增長幅度高達(dá)15.1%。

The projected sharp pullback from last year “reflects the slowdown in the economy,” Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s US economic forecaster, said in a report. “Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending.”

德勤的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測師丹尼爾·巴赫曼在一份報告中稱，相比去年零售額大減“反映出經(jīng)濟(jì)正在減速。零售業(yè)的銷售額可能還會進(jìn)一步受到耐用消費品需求下降的影響，而耐用消費品一直是疫情支出的核心。”

The 15% growth in holiday shopping last season was also largely due to the “uncommon circumstances surrounding the pandemic", namely the shift to spending on “things rather than experience and the extra cash provided by the stimulus checks,” said Andrew Forman, associate professor of marketing, at Hofstra University’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business.

霍夫斯特拉大學(xué)弗蘭克扎布商學(xué)院的營銷學(xué)副教授安德魯·福曼指出，去年節(jié)日購物季15%的增幅很大程度上也是由于“和疫情有關(guān)的特殊情況”，人們轉(zhuǎn)而購買“物品而非經(jīng)歷”，同時還因為人們在經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃中獲得了額外的現(xiàn)金。

"This year’s shopping season is likely to be challenging for retailers,” he said.

他說：“今年的購物季對于零售商而言將會不好過。”

Smaller gifts 縮水的節(jié)日禮物

Among the gifting categories that are still expected to do well this year are clothing, toys and gift cards. Spending in restaurants, entertainment and travel should also perk up, said Rod Sides, vice chair with Deloitte and head of its US retail and distribution practice.

德勤副董事長兼美國零售批發(fā)業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人羅德·賽茲表示，今年仍將吃香的禮物類別是服裝、玩具和禮品卡，餐廳、娛樂和旅游消費應(yīng)該也會增加。

"Overall, there will still be sales growth but it won’t be as dramatic as last year,” said Sides. “If there are fewer gift purchases by consumers, expect to see even more holiday promotions than ever.”

賽茲說：“總體來看，銷售額會增長，但不會像去年的增幅那么大。如果消費者購買的禮物減少了，那么節(jié)日的促銷活動可能會比以往更多。”

Inflation won’t be the Grinch that completely stole Christmas, according to Neil Saunders, retail analyst and managing director at GlobalData Retail.

咨詢機構(gòu)GlobalData Retail的零售業(yè)分析師兼常務(wù)董事尼爾·桑德斯表示，通脹不會完全“偷走”圣誕節(jié)。

"Gifting will remain an important part of the holidays, but consumers will be much more frugal and practical in their gift spending. That means cutting back on gifting to non-family members such as colleagues or friends, so gifting circles will shrink,” he said.

他指出：“送禮仍會是節(jié)日的一個重要部分，但是消費者在送禮支出上會節(jié)儉務(wù)實得多。這意味著削減送給同事或朋友等非家庭成員的禮物，也就是說，送禮圈子將會縮小。”

If consumers are planning fewer gifts, they will likely try to make them more meaningful, said Saunders.

桑德斯說，如果消費者計劃送出的禮物變少，那么他們會努力讓禮物更有意義。

"They will be keen to ensure they are things that are wanted rather than fripperies that are a bit of a waste of money. Practical gifts will be in, including the gifting of cash and gift cards so that recipients can choose exactly what they want,” he said.

他說：“他們會確保禮物是對方想要的，而不是瞎花錢的華而不實的東西。包括現(xiàn)金和禮品卡在內(nèi)的實用禮物將會成為首選，這樣收禮者就可以選擇自己真正想要的東西。”

One area where there won’t be much of a cutback? Gifts for kids. Said Saunders, “Parents are always keen to pull out all the stops to ensure children have a great holiday.”

不太會縮水的禮物是哪一塊呢？那就是給孩子的禮物。桑德斯說：“父母們總是愿意傾盡全力，讓孩子們度過一個快樂的節(jié)日。”

英文來源：美國有線電視新聞網(wǎng)

翻譯&編輯：丹妮