美國通脹數據上周超預期反彈，同比上漲3.5%。這不僅打壓了降息預期，導致美國市場震蕩，引起市場機構重新評估通脹前景，也加大了歐美貨幣政策分歧。

Recent US Department of Labor data show that the consumer price index in the United States rose 3.5 percent year-on-year in March, up 0.3 percentage points from the growth in February, and the core CPI rose 3.8 percent year-on-year and 0.4 percent month-on-month, both exceeding expectations for three consecutive months.

美國勞工部近日公布的數據顯示，3月份美國消費者價格指數（CPI）同比上漲3.5%，漲幅較2月份擴大0.3個百分點。同時，核心CPI環比上漲0.4%，同比上漲3.8%，核心CPI的這兩項指標漲幅已連續3個月超預期。

The higher-than-expected CPI indicates that the rebound in the US inflation since the beginning of the year is not temporary. The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in March also show that the Fed will not cut interest rates until it is confident inflation is steadily returning to the target level.

CPI持續超預期回升，表明年初以來美國通脹反彈并不是暫時現象。4月10日公布的美聯儲3月貨幣政策會議紀要也顯示，在確信通脹穩步回歸目標水平之前，美聯儲不會降息。

Analysts point out that the continued rebound in US inflation has had many impacts on the US and global markets. With inflation data rebounding, market institutions have to reassess the Fed's policy path, with Wall Street traders expecting the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. There is speculation that the Fed may raise rates again.

分析指出，美國通脹持續反彈，給美國和全球市場帶來了多方面影響。隨著通脹數據反彈，市場機構不得不重新評估美聯儲的政策路徑。華爾街的交易員預計美聯儲可能將高利率維持更長時間。更有觀點認為，美聯儲甚至可能再度加息。

Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, even said "we are ready for the Fed to raise interest rates to as high as 8 percent".

摩根大通董事長兼首席執行官杰米·戴蒙甚至聲稱，“已為美聯儲最高將利率上調至8%做好了準備”。

After the March inflation data were released, US President Joe Biden broke the practice of not commenting on the Fed's decision, saying he believed the Fed will cut rates by the end of the year. Analysts believe that Biden's remarks reflect that the US economy is unable to withstand continued high interest rates, and the "resilience" of the US economy may not be as strong as claimed by the Fed.

在3月份通脹數據公布后，美國總統拜登打破了不對美聯儲決策發表評論的慣例，認為美聯儲“年底前將降息”。有分析認為，這反映出美國經濟難以承受持續高利率的重壓，所謂美國經濟的“韌性”恐怕并沒有美聯儲對外聲稱的那么強。

As expectations of US interest rate cuts subside, the divergence between European and US monetary policy will widen. If the European Central Bank cuts interest rates before the Fed does, it could cause the euro to fall sharply and European enterprises to pay more for dollar-denominated imports, which would fuel inflation again.

由于美國降息預期回落，歐美貨幣政策之間的分歧也在擴大。如果歐洲央行先于美聯儲降息，可能導致歐元大幅貶值，企業則必須為以美元計價的進口產品支付更多成本，這將再度推升通脹。

The ECB has intensified efforts to shed the impression that it follows the US in terms of monetary policy. Therefore, it is believed the ECB, fearing that the economy could lose steam, may cut interest rates before the Fed does in June.

另一方面，歐洲央行近期試圖擺脫多年來在貨幣政策上對美亦步亦趨的形象。市場認為，在經濟失速的壓力之下，歐洲央行有可能先于美聯儲在6月降息。

The US inflation data are an important indicator of the country's and even global economic trends. However, there have been more signs that inflation data have gradually been used by the US government and the Fed to influence market expectations. The question is, as US federal government debt approaches $35 trillion, how long can this tool be wielded?

美國通脹數據是觀察美國經濟乃至全球經濟走勢的重要指標。然而，越來越多的跡象表明，通脹數據已逐漸變成美國政府和美聯儲左右市場預期的工具。只不過，隨著美國聯邦政府債務規模快速向35萬億美元逼近，這件工具還能用多久呢？

來源：中國日報、經濟日報

編輯：陳丹妮

審校：董靜、齊磊