據美國彭博新聞社和商業內幕網綜合報道，全球債券巨頭品浩（Pimco）最新預計，美國不良商業房地產貸款的“高度”集中將導致另一輪銀行破產潮。迫在眉睫的美國商業房地產貸款危機讓分析師和市場觀察人士憂心忡忡，預計到明年年底將有2.1 萬億美元的債務到期。

Pacific Investment Management Co. expects more regional bank failures in the US because of a “very high” concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books.

債券巨頭品浩預計，由于不良商業房地產貸款“高度”集中，美國將有更多區域性銀行倒閉。

“The real wave of distress is just starting” for lenders to everything from malls to offices, John Murray, Pimco’s head of global private commercial real estate team, said in an interview.

品浩全球私人商業房地產團隊負責人約翰·穆雷在接受采訪時表示，對于商場寫字樓等商業房地產的貸款方來說，“真正的困境浪潮才剛剛開始”。

Uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates has exacerbated challenges faced by the CRE sector, where high borrowing costs have hammered valuations and triggered defaults, leaving lenders stuck with assets that are tough to sell.

美聯儲降息的不確定性加劇了商業房地產（CRE）行業面臨的挑戰，高借貸成本壓低了估值并引發了違約，導致作為貸方的區域性銀行被困在難以出售的資產上。

“The combination of rising rates plus recessionary pressures creates real challenges for commercial real estate, from both a capital markets and fundamentals perspective,” Murray said.

穆雷表示：“從資本市場和基本面角度來看，利率上升結合衰退壓力，給商業房地產帶來了真正的挑戰。”

Things are not looking up for the US office sector, with loan performance set to slump even further in 2025, Fitch Ratings said. After the market significantly underperformed Fitch's year-to-date expectations in May, the rating agency has revised its office delinquency forecast to 8.4% and 11% through this and next year. That's up from projections of 8.1% and 9.9%, respectively.

據商業內幕網近日報道，惠譽評級表示，美國寫字樓市場前景不容樂觀，2025 年貸款表現將進一步下滑。在 5 月份市場表現明顯低于惠譽對今年迄今業績的預期后，該評級機構已將今年和明年的寫字樓貸款拖欠率預測分別上調至 8.4% 和 11%。這一數字高于此前預測的 8.1% 和 9.9%。

Driving the fallout are still-elevated interest rates, cooling economic growth, and a stricter lending environment, Fitch wrote on Friday. That's all happening against a broad decline in office demand, as hybrid or fully remote work has become an entrenched norm.

惠譽7日表示，造成這一影響的因素包括利率居高不下、經濟增長放緩以及貸款環境趨緊。這一切都發生在辦公需求普遍下降的情況下，因為混合或完全遠程工作已成為一種根深蒂固的常態。

"The recovery of the office sector will be slower and more drawn out during this cycle than following the global financial crisis and will lead to permanent impairments in property values, weaker performance, and higher loan losses," Fitch wrote.

惠譽稱：“與2008年全球金融危機之后相比，此輪周期中寫字樓行業的復蘇將更加緩慢、耗時，并將導致美國房地產價值永久性受損、業績表現疲軟以及貸款損失增加。”

A looming commercial real estate loan crash has been a persistent worry among analysts and market observers, with $2.1 trillion in debt expected to mature by the end of next year.

分析師和市場觀察人士對迫在眉睫的美國商業房地產貸款崩盤一直感到擔憂，預計到明年年底將有2.1 萬億美元的債務到期。

編輯：董靜

審校：陳丹妮 韓鶴

英文來源：Bloomberg, Business Insider