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美國波士頓咨詢公司總裁兼首席執行官李瑞麟:不久前,人民幣出現較大幅度貶值。有人認為,這帶來了連鎖反應,甚至擔心引起“貨幣戰”。對此,您怎么看?現在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)決定推遲審議特別提款權(SDR),中國將如何推進人民幣的國際化進程?
Richard Lesser, President and CEO of Boston Consulting Group: The Chinese RMB devalued sharply not so long ago. Some people think that this might trigger a chain reaction, and some even worry about a currency war. What is your view on this? And also now the IMF has postponed its review of the Special Drawing Rights, how do you see the RMB globalizing in the months and years ahead?
李克強:我想說明一個事實,自本屆政府成立以來,人民幣實際有效匯率已經上升了15%。由于近來許多國家的貨幣兌美元大幅下跌,國際市場的走勢使我們調整了人民幣匯率中間價報價機制,但也只是小幅微調。如果算總賬,本屆政府成立至今,人民幣兌美元的實際有效匯率還是有比較大幅度上升的。坦率地講,人民幣匯率小幅回調以后,目前已基本保持穩定。人民幣不存在持續貶值的基礎。因為中國經濟運行在合理區間,我們有比較充足的外匯儲備,而且貨物貿易的順差還在增加,這都表明人民幣匯率能夠在合理、均衡的水平上保持基本穩定。只是有的時候,用中國的話講,“躺著也會中槍”。
Li Keqiang: I wish to draw your attention to one fact: Since the formation of this government, the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the RMB has appreciated 15%. As many currencies significantly depreciated against the dollar recently, developments on the international markets compelled us to adjust the quotation regime of the RMB central parity. Yet it was a small adjustment. Overall, the REER of the yuan has appreciated by a large margin during the term of this government. The truth is, after the small adjustment, the RMB exchange rate is now basically stable. There is no basis for continued depreciation of the RMB, because the Chinese economy has been operating within the proper range, we have ample foreign exchange reserves, and surplus of trade in goods has been rising. All these show that the RMB exchange rate can stay basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level. Yet as the Chinese often say, in some circumstances, one may get caught up in the middle of something unrelated.
我們不希望通過人民幣貶值來刺激出口,這不符合我們結構調整的方向,我們更不愿意看到世界上發生“貨幣戰”。中國作為一個同世界經濟高度融合的主要經濟體,如果真的發生了“貨幣戰”,對中國只有害、少有利。舉個例子,人民幣匯率小幅回調以后,我曾經問過有關部門和主營出口的企業,他們都希望人民幣匯率保持合理均衡水平上的基本穩定。因為如果市場有一個持續貶值的預期,企業連出口長單都拿不到。這怎么能夠有利于中國的出口呢?
We have no intention to boost exports by devaluing the yuan. This is not in keeping with our policy of structural adjustment. Still less do we want to see a global "currency war". As the Chinese economy has become so highly integrated into the global economy, a "currency war" would only bring more harm than good to China. As a matter of fact, after the small adjustment of the exchange rate, I once talked about this with relevant departments and some export-oriented firms in China. They said they hope the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. Should there be market expectations of continued depreciation of the yuan, these companies could hardly get any long-term export order. How could this be beneficial for China's exports?
大家都知道,中國對外貿易中,大宗商品貿易占很大比重。今年1到8月份,中國進口的原油是2.2億噸,比去年同期增長了10%,大豆進口同比增長了7%,鐵礦石進口與去年同期基本持平,進口了6億多噸。但是大宗商品進口價格下來了,有的下跌了40%、50%,這給我們也帶來了影響。關稅下來了,財政收入受到較大壓力。但是國際市場價格不是我們能決定的,我們進口量沒有下來,由于價格下降導致進口額減少,應該由誰來負責?我想大家可以進行討論。大家都知道,如果國際市場大宗商品價格有所回升,我們進口關稅也可以多征收,這能夠用于改善我們的民生。同時,PPI也會有變化,這對企業利潤、經營效益的改善是有利的,當然這需要各方共同努力。
As you know, commodity trade takes up a large part in China's total foreign trade. Between January and August this year, China imported 220 million tons of crude oil, up by 10% over the previous year. Soy bean imports rose by 7%, and iron ore imports were over 600 million tons, more or less the same as last year. However, commodity prices have dropped significantly, with some plunging 40-50%. We have been affected as a result. There were less tariffs and hence the strains on China's public finance. But commodity prices are not something for us to decide. Total import volume has not declined, yet the value of imports has come down as a result of falling prices. Who should be held accountable for this? It is a topic that can be further discussed and debated. If international commodity prices rebound, we would get more import tariffs. This would mean more public money to spend on improving people's lives. There would be change in the PPI too, which is beneficial for improving corporate profitability and performance. This is an issue that requires joint efforts for a solution.
至于人民幣的國際化,將由市場來選擇,也要根據中國經濟發展的實際來推進,它有一個過程,我們也會逐步推進人民幣資本項下可兌換等措施。但有一點可以肯定,人民幣持續貶值一定是不利于人民幣國際化的,這不是我們的政策取向。中國愿意加入SDR,不僅是為了人民幣逐漸實現國際化,也是盡一個發展中大國應盡的國際責任。中國不是世界經濟風險之源,而是世界經濟增長的動力之源。
As for internationalization of the RMB, it should be a market-driven process. It needs to fit China's reality of economic development and will take some time. We will gradually achieve full convertibility of the RMB under capital accounts. One thing is certain: a continually devaluing RMB is not conducive to the RMB internationalization process. This is not our policy orientation. China wishes to join the SDR, not just for making the RMB more internationalized, but also for fulfilling China's due international responsibilities as a big developing country. China is not a source of risks for the global economy; China is a driver of world economic growth.
謝謝。
Thank you.
阿聯酋阿布拉吉集團創始人及首席執行官艾瑞·納維:非常感謝總理今天抽出時間與我們進行開誠布公的對話和交流,我的問題是中國如何看待外商直接投資和在中國的投資環境,我相信這是很多跨國企業非常關心的問題。外國企業都很關注中國國內市場的開放問題,有一些外國企業擔心中國利用外資的政策會變化,擔心他們在中國的投資優勢有可能下降,擔心技術專利和知識產權保護等問題。所以我想請問,中國政府將采取什么樣的具體措施來推動利用外商直接投資?
Arif Naqvi, Founder and CEO of the Abraaj Group: Thank you Your excellency for having this open dialogue with us. My question relates to FDI and investment environment. A lot of multinational companies are paying very close attention with doubt to the openness of China's domestic economy. Some are concerned about the Chinese government's policy change to foreign investment in the country, their diminishing advantage in investing in China and intellectual property rights protection. What new measures will the Chinese government take to boost FDI?
李克強:中國利用外商投資總的政策不會變,但具體政策確實在變化,而且是在向更多吸引外資、放開更寬領域的方向變化。比如今年我們繼續擴大外資投資的領域,限制類條目取消了50%,為了推動外資投資的便利化,我們把核準制基本上改為了備案制,大概現在保留的需要核準的項目也只有不到5%。同時,我們正在探索以準入前國民待遇加負面清單的管理模式,推進中美、中歐投資協定的審議,同很多國家進行FTA談判??梢哉f,外資進入中國的領域會更為寬廣,方式會更為便利。我們吸引外資的能力實際上也在增強,在全球今年投資不佳的情況下,中國上半年吸引外資還增長了7.7%。
Li Keqiang: On the whole, there has been no change in China's overall policy on FDI. But in specific areas, there have been new steps taken or new measures introduced. These steps have opened more areas to foreign investors and will help China attract more foreign investment. For example, the number of items where restrictions were imposed on foreign investment access has been slashed by 50%. We are also taking steps to facilitate foreign investment. We have replaced past practice of comprehensive review and approval with the practice of record keeping. The number of items requiring government approval only accounts for 5% of the total. We are promoting a management model based on pre-establishment national treatment and a negative list approach. We are conducting BIT reviews with the United States and the European Union, and FTA negotiations with many countries. Foreign investment will be able to get into more areas in an easier way in China. We are also becoming more capable of attracting foreign direct investment. With global foreign investment in decline, FDI flowing into China still grew by 7.7%in the first half of this year.
我們正在實施創新驅動戰略,推動大眾創業、萬眾創新,這本身就需要保護知識產權,需要營造公平競爭的營商環境,對在中國注冊的外資企業和中國企業一視同仁,不管是合資還是獨資。但不要誤解,不是說沒在中國注冊的企業的知識產權就可以侵犯,那是中國法律不允許、世界公理也不允許的。
In the meantime, we are pursuing innovation-driven development and encouraging mass entrepreneurship and innovation. This requires that we better protect intellectual property rights and ensure that there is a level-playing field for all market entities.All foreign invested companies registered in China will be treated as equals as their Chinese counterparts, be they joint ventures or solely owned foreign companies. But don't get me wrong: this does not mean thatforeign companies which are not registered in China will not have theirintellectual property protected in China. Otherwise, it is against not only Chinese laws but also internationally accepted practices.
謝謝。
Thank you.
荷蘭皇家帝斯曼集團董事長兼首席執行官謝白曼:中國政府近期采取了一系列強有力的舉措應對氣候變化挑戰,治理環境污染。在這個過程中,北京的空氣變得很好。請問中國政府在治理環境污染方面,面臨的最大挑戰是什么?中國在應對氣候變化方面作出了新的承諾,如何在保持經濟發展的同時實現這些目標?
Feike Sijbesma, Chairman and CEO of DSM: The Chinese government in recent period has shown strong resolve to address climate change and fight pollution. We hope step by step Beijing will get cleaner air. My question is what are the challenges China is facing in addressing climate change and pollution? And while addressing that, can you maintain your economic growth? Or is pollution a precondition for maintaining economic growth?
李克強:由于時間有限,請允許我簡要回答。在治理環境污染方面我們受到的最大挑戰是,中國是一個發展中國家,但中國又必須轉變發展方式,承擔應當承擔的國際責任,應對氣候變化。這兩者之間并非沒有矛盾,我們需要找到一個平衡。中國已經宣布了應對氣候變化國家自主貢獻方案,實現這里面提出的目標應該說對中國壓力還是很大的,需要經過艱苦卓絕的努力。當然,我們既然說了,就要“言必信、行必果”。
Li Keqiang: As we both have only limited time, allow me to give abrief answer to your question. The biggest challenge China faces in controlling pollution is that China is still a large developing country, yet it needs to shift the growth model and assume due international responsibilities in tackling climate change. There is a certain conflict of interests, and we need to strike a balance between the two. Not long ago, China announced its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. China faces tremendous pressure in meeting these goals and will have to make enormous efforts. However, now that we have made those commitments, we will deliver on our commitment with concrete actions.
中國不斷加強生態保護,尤其是加大節能減排和污染治理的力度。今年上半年單位GDP能耗下降了5.9%,我們還會繼續按這個方向推動轉型發展、綠色發展。但是,我也希望不要因為中國加大環保力度,可能影響一些經濟增長的速度,又造成一種聲音,“是不是經濟放緩了”、“拖累實體經濟了”。我們正在采取措施,努力培育綠色的、節能的,又能支持經濟增長的新動力,比如發展互聯網+等新業態、新產業。當然,這需要有一個過程。
The Chinese government is taking steps to advance ecological conservation. In particular, we are intensifying efforts to save energy, cut emissions and control pollution. In the first half of this year, we managed to bring down per unit GDP energy consumption by 5.9%. We will continue to shift the growth model and promote green development. As China steps up efforts in environmental protection, the growth speed may have been affected. This may have caused concerns that the economy is slowing downand the real economy is being affected. We are working hard to foster green and energy-efficient industries that can be new drivers of growth, such as "Internet plus" and other new business models and industries. But again this needs a process.
謝謝。
Thank you.
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