受豬肉漲價等因素影響，7月份CPI同比漲幅創下了兩年來的新高。專家指出，結合CPI溫和上升與PPI連續回落兩方面綜合考慮，通脹對貨幣政策不構成較大壓力，我國下半年仍將保持穩健寬松的貨幣政策。

China will likely keep its monetary policy stable and on target in the second half as consumer inflation is expected to rise mildly within a reasonable range in the rest of the year, experts said.

專家指出，下半年國內通貨膨脹水平有望在合理區間內溫和上升，我國將會保持穩健精準的貨幣政策。

Their comments came as China's consumer inflation accelerated to the highest level in two years, largely driven by surging pork prices, but it still managed to come in weaker than expected in July.

當前國內通脹升到了兩年以來的最高水平，很大程度上是受到豬肉價格上漲的影響，但是通脹水平還是控制在7月的預期值以內。

China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in July, following a 2.5 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

國家統計局8月10日發布的數據顯示，7月份居民消費價格指數（CPI）同比上漲2.7%，而6月份的CPI同比上漲2.5%。居民消費價格指數是衡量通貨膨脹的主要指標。

The growth in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, came in at 0.8 percent year-on-year in July, following a 1 percent rise the previous month.

扣除易波動的食品和能源價格的核心CPI在7月份同比上漲0.8%，而上月同比上漲1%。

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the rise in July CPI was largely due to soaring pork prices as some producers were reluctant to sell hogs ready for the market.

英大證券研究所所長鄭后成解讀稱，7月份CPI上漲主要是因為一些生產商不愿出售準備上市的生豬，導致豬肉價格上揚。

Looking ahead, Zheng expects consumer prices may fluctuate in August, and the rise in CPI may struggle to surpass 3 percent year-on-year during the month.

展望未來，鄭后成預計，8月份消費者價格可能會出現波動，CPI漲幅同比可能會超過3%。

Compared with soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price levels are generally stable. Inflation hit a 40-year high in June in the United States, as the consumer price index rose 9.1 percent year-on-year, said the US Department of Labor.

與其他主要經濟體的物價飆升相比，中國的物價總體保持穩定。美國勞工部的數據顯示，6月份美國通脹創下40年新高，CPI同比上漲9.1%。

Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, a think tank, said the spillover effect of rising global food prices on China's domestic food costs will also likely be modest, given China's self-sufficiency in staple grains in the near term.

牛津經濟研究院首席經濟學家胡東安認為，考慮到中國主糧短期內能自給自足，全球食品價格上漲對中國食品價格的溢出效應是有限的。

With limited pass-through of factory-gate inflation and energy prices on consumer prices and subdued core inflation due to weak domestic demand, Wu said his team expects China's consumer inflation to remain below the 3 percent target for 2022.

胡東安稱，由于工業品出廠價格指數以及能源價格上漲對國內物價的傳導影響有限，再加上國內需求不旺對核心CPI的抑制作用，他的團隊預期2022年中國通脹率將保持在3%的目標值以下。

Against such a backdrop, he said monetary easing will remain targeted to support credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure financing.

在這樣的背景下，胡東安表示中國將會保持精準寬松的貨幣政策，為中小企業、制造業、房地產業和基建融資提供信貸支持。

A report released on Wednesday by the People's Bank of China said China may face mounting inflationary pressure at home due to factors including a recovery in consumer demand, rising pork prices and high energy and raw material costs, and imported inflationary pressures will continue to exist.

中國人民銀行8月10日發布的報告稱，受消費需求復蘇回暖、豬肉價格上漲、能源和原材料成本仍處高位等因素影響，國內通脹壓力可能加大，并且輸入性通脹壓力依然存在。

Looking into the second half, the nation's central bank said China's consumer inflation will rise at a faster pace than the level in the first half, and the CPI rise may exceed 3 percent in some months.

展望下半年，人民銀行指出，CPI漲幅較上半年水平會有所抬升，一些月份漲幅可能階段性突破3%。

According to the report, China will continue to keep prudent monetary policy and refrain from adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies. And it will keep an eye on the inflation situation both at home and abroad.

央行報告指出，下一階段中國貨幣政策將堅持穩健取向，堅持不搞“大水漫灌”、不超發貨幣，密切關注國內外通脹形勢變化。

Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said the country's economy is gradually rebounding amid recovering market demand, as many sectors included in core CPI jumped on a monthly basis.

民生銀行首席研究員溫彬指出，核心CPI多行業環比上漲，反映出市場需求正在復蘇，我國經濟正在逐步回升。

For instance, NBS data showed prices of plane tickets, hotel accommodations and tourism increased by 6.1 percent, 5 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in July on a monthly basis.

舉例而言，統計局數據顯示，7月份飛機票、賓館住宿和旅游價格環比分別上漲6.1%、5.0%和3.5%。

Even though China is facing inflationary pressure from soaring pork prices in the coming months, Wen said the government's recent moves to stabilize supplies and prices will help ensure market orderliness.

溫彬稱，盡管未來數月中國面臨豬肉價格上漲引發的通脹壓力，但是政府近期穩供應穩物價的舉措將有助于保證市場秩序。

As for the rest of the year, he said his team expects the CPI to rise modestly and the producer price index to continue to trend down, which will not put extra pressure on monetary policy easing.

溫彬指出，他的團隊預期下半年CPI會溫和上漲，生產價格指數（PPI）則會繼續下行，不會給寬松貨幣政策施加額外壓力。

According to the NBS, China's PPI, which gauges factory-gate prices, increased 4.2 percent year-on-year in July after a 6.1 percent rise in June, cooling to the lowest level since February 2021. On a monthly basis, the PPI declined 1.3 percent in July.

統計局的數據顯示，7月份衡量工業品出廠價格的PPI同比上漲4.2%，環比下降1.3%，已降至2021年2月以來的最低水平。而6月份的PPI同比上漲6.1%。

Yin Yue, a macroeconomics analyst at Shanghai-listed Hongta Securities, agreed that inflation will not put much pressure on China's monetary easing, especially considering the relatively low core CPI level and the slowdown in PPI growth.

紅塔證券宏觀分析師殷越也認為，通貨膨脹不會對中國的寬松貨幣政策產生太大壓力，尤其是考慮到相對較低的核心CPI水平和PPI增速的放緩。

Looking ahead, Feng Mohan, a macroeconomics researcher at Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Co Ltd, said he will not rule out the possibility that the PPI will decline in the second half amid weakening global demand, a gloomy global outlook and a high base effect from the previous year.

北京福盛德經濟咨詢有限公司宏觀經濟研究員馮默涵表示，隨著全球需求減弱、全球經濟前景越發黯淡，再加上前一年高基數效應的影響，他不排除PPI在下半年下降的可能性。

英文來源：中國日報

翻譯&編輯：丹妮