盡管當前我國面臨著疫情沖擊和外部挑戰，但是專家指出，隨著政府的一系列刺激政策落地生效，我國經濟在三四季度將會加速增長，并在合理區間內保持穩定運行。

China is on track for a steady rebound in the third and fourth quarters as policy stimulus takes effect, and renewed COVID-19 outbreaks will be less disruptive to the supply chain, experts said.

專家稱，隨著刺激政策落地生效，中國經濟在三四季度將會穩定復蘇，新一輪疫情也不會對供應鏈產生太大破壞性影響。

They expect strong fiscal easing — notably in infrastructure spending — to shore up growth, better use of structural monetary tools and more government measures to further stimulate consumption, which will help boost domestic demand and build a strong national market.

專家預計強有力的財政寬松政策——尤其是在基建投資領域的寬松政策——會支撐經濟增長，政府會更好地利用結構性貨幣政策工具和采取更多措施來進一步刺激消費，這將有助于刺激內需和營造強大的國內市場。

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, expected the growth to recover to 5 percent in the third and fourth quarters of the year, making a full-year V-shaped rebound.

粵開證券首席經濟學家羅志恒預計三四季度能回歸5%的增速，全年經濟增長曲線呈現“V型”反彈。

To stabilize overall growth, Luo said it would be advisable to allocate some of the 2023 quota for local government special bonds in advance in the fourth quarter and to increase financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, technological innovation and green development.

羅志恒認為，為了保持經濟增長整體穩定，應在第四季度提前下達2023年地方政府的部分專項債額度，加大對中小企業、技術創新和綠色發展的財政支持。

For the second half of 2022, a recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee urged efforts to keep the economy running within an appropriate range and to strive for the best possible outcome.

中共中央政治局近日召開的會議提出，2022年下半年要努力保持經濟運行在合理區間，力爭實現最好結果。

It was decided that major economically developed provinces should play a leading role and provinces that are able to should strive to meet the objectives set for economic and social development this year.

會議決定，經濟大省要勇挑大梁，有條件的省份要力爭完成經濟社會發展預期目標。

Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief China economist, said the central government made a "practical" choice to de-emphasize the preset annual GDP growth target of around 5.5 percent in the face of unexpected shocks from COVID-19 and external challenges.

摩根大通中國首席經濟學家朱海斌表示，在突如其來的疫情沖擊和外部挑戰下，中央政府淡化5.5%左右的全年GDP增長目標是切合實際的選擇。

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the five coastal provincial regions in southeast China that account for over one-third of China's economy — Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai — will play a key role in stabilizing overall growth.

英大證券研究所所長鄭后成指出，經濟體量占全國三分之一的東南沿海5省市——福建、廣東、江蘇、浙江和上海將在穩定經濟整體增長方面發揮重要作用。

Local governments across China have recently accelerated measures to boost consumption, a major challenge to the national economy in the second half of the year, for example by encouraging car purchases and issuing consumption vouchers.

全國各地政府最近也加快推出刺激消費的措施，比如鼓勵購車和發放消費券。下半年消費市場復蘇是我國經濟面臨的主要挑戰。

China's southwestern Yunnan province has released a plan for boosting consumption and stabilizing growth from 2022 to 2024, requiring efforts to develop online and offline consumption and encourage digital and intelligent transformation of traditional trade enterprises and to build Kunming into an international consumption center.

中國云南省政府印發《云南省促消費穩增長三年行動計劃（2022-2024年）》，要求努力發展線上線下消費，鼓勵傳統商貿企業向數字化智能化轉型，把昆明打造成國際消費中心。

The northern port city of Tianjin is planning to unveil 20 measures to spur consumption, it said in a recently released document, with major focus on encouraging consumption of cars, housing, home appliances, and cultural tourism as well as stimulating new types of consumption.

天津新出臺了20條提振消費措施，主要內容是鼓勵汽車、住房、家電消費和文化旅游以及培育新型消費。

Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Guangdong province, have also unveiled a series of measures, such as holding shopping events and giving out coupons and subsidies.

北京、上海、深圳和廣東也出臺了一系列措施，比如舉辦購物節、發放消費券和補貼等。

Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said investment will also be a key growth driver.

中國銀行研究院研究員葉銀丹指出，投資也將是拉動經濟增長的主要動力。

To further spur consumption in the second half, Ye said the government should expand efforts to boost residents' confidence and expectations by beefing up support for the unemployed and low-income groups.

葉銀丹表示，為了在下半年進一步刺激消費，政府將通過加大對失業和低收入人群的扶持來努力提升居民的消費信心和期望值。

She proposed adopting more measures, such as encouraging more promotions and sales on holidays, offering subsidies to buyers of new energy vehicles and green home appliances and easing restrictions on the recovery in services consumption amid COVID-19 outbreaks.

她建議采取更多措施，比如鼓勵節假日開展更多促銷活動，向購買新能源汽車和綠色家電的消費者提供補貼，放松限制疫情期間服務消費復蘇的規定。

Looking ahead, Ye said China's economy will likely rebound quarter by quarter as the stimulus policy gradually takes effect, and the country will keep economic performance stable within a reasonable range in the second half.

展望未來，葉銀丹表示，隨著刺激政策逐步生效，中國經濟將會逐季度復蘇，我國下半年將會在合理區間內保持經濟穩定運行。

英文來源：中國日報網

翻譯&編輯：丹妮