近日召開的中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會(huì)議要求，明年要繼續(xù)實(shí)施積極的財(cái)政政策和穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策，加大宏觀政策調(diào)控力度，加強(qiáng)各類政策協(xié)調(diào)配合，形成共促高質(zhì)量發(fā)展合力。專家表示 ，中國(guó)的貨幣政策明年初可能有更大的放松空間。

China's monetary policy might have more room for easing early next year as the US Federal Reserve has started to slow down rate hikes while domestic economic growth requires more support, experts said on Thursday.

多位專家上周四表示，隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開始放緩加息步伐，而國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)需要更多支持，中國(guó)的貨幣政策明年初可能有更大的放松空間。

They said the Fed's tightening campaign to tame inflation has started to gear down as it raised interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, compared with four consecutive hikes of 75 basis points in the previous meetings through November.

他們表示，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為抑制通脹而采取的緊縮行動(dòng)已開始放緩。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上周三宣布加息50個(gè)基點(diǎn)，而截至11月的前幾次會(huì)議上，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)曾連續(xù)四次加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)。

The slowdown in Fed tightening will mitigate concerns that further easing moves by the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, could intensify depreciation pressure of the renminbi against the dollar.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)緊縮政策的步伐放緩，這將緩解人們的擔(dān)憂，即中國(guó)人民銀行的進(jìn)一步寬松舉措可能會(huì)加大人民幣兌美元的貶值壓力。

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, a global investment management company, said the strength of the US dollar is expected to further fade as the Fed turns less aggressive in tightening and may pause rate hikes in the first half of 2023.

全球投資管理公司景順投資首席全球市場(chǎng)策略師克里斯蒂娜·胡珀表示，隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)緊縮政策的力度削弱，并可能在2023年上半年暫停加息，美元的強(qiáng)勢(shì)預(yù)計(jì)將進(jìn)一步減弱。

With the renminbi likely to strengthen against the dollar next year, Hooper said she expects the PBOC to continue to be "supportive" and provide "the most appropriate level of support" for the economy.

由于明年人民幣兌美元可能會(huì)走強(qiáng)，胡珀表示，她預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)人民銀行將繼續(xù)采取“支持”政策，并為經(jīng)濟(jì)提供“最適當(dāng)水平的支持”。

Pointing to weaker pressure from a strong greenback on the renminbi, the onshore exchange rate of the renminbi firmed past the 7-per-dollar level last week and was trading around 6.97 as of Thursday afternoon, strengthening by about 2.3 percent so far this month, according to market tracker Wind Info.

根據(jù)市場(chǎng)跟蹤機(jī)構(gòu)萬(wàn)得資訊的數(shù)據(jù)，由于強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元給人民幣帶來(lái)的壓力減弱，人民幣在岸匯率上周收復(fù)7元關(guān)口，截至上周四下午，人民幣兌美元的匯率在6.97元左右，本月迄今已升值約2.3%。

Agreeing that the Fed's slowdown in tightening can help expand China's room for easing, Shao Yu, chief economist at Orient Securities, also noted the need to launch more monetary support given the domestic economic downward pressure.

東方證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家邵宇也認(rèn)為，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)放緩緊縮政策有助于擴(kuò)大中國(guó)的寬松空間，他還指出，鑒于國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力，有必要推出更多的貨幣支持政策。

"There is a necessity to reduce interest rates as the housing market faces some obstacles to achieving a soft landing," Shao said. Reducing interest rates can help bolster homebuying demand and thus help stabilize the property market, which is a major drag on growth.

邵宇說(shuō)：“由于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸方面面臨一些障礙，因此有必要降低利率。”降低利率有助于提振購(gòu)房需求，從而有助于穩(wěn)定房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，而房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要影響因素。

Yet Shao cautioned that any rate cuts should be taken at an appropriate degree to avoid overstimulating the housing sector. Rather, structural monetary support should be stepped up and effectively boost credit growth in such sectors as green development and technological advances to cement the country's high-quality development momentum.

但邵宇警告稱，任何降息都應(yīng)采取適當(dāng)?shù)牧Χ龋员苊膺^(guò)度刺激房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。應(yīng)加大結(jié)構(gòu)性貨幣支持力度，切實(shí)促進(jìn)綠色發(fā)展、科技進(jìn)步等領(lǐng)域信貸增長(zhǎng)，鞏固高質(zhì)量發(fā)展勢(shì)頭。

The PBOC kept the interest rate of the medium-term lending facility operation — a key policy benchmark — at 2.75 percent on Thursday, staying unchanged since a cut of 10 basis points in August.

上周四，中國(guó)人民銀行開展中期借貸便利操作，中標(biāo)利率維持在2.75%，自8月份降息10個(gè)基點(diǎn)以來(lái)保持不變。

Despite an unchanged rate, Thursday's operation still points to an accommodative policy stance by injecting a net 150 billion yuan into the market. A total of 650 billion yuan in new medium-term liquidity was injected, outnumbering the 500 billion yuan in MLF that matured on Thursday.

盡管利率沒(méi)有變化，上周四的操作仍顯示出寬松的政策立場(chǎng)，當(dāng)日凈投放1500億元人民幣。當(dāng)日中國(guó)人民銀行開展6500億元中期借貸便利操作，超過(guò)了到期的5000億元。

PBOC Governor Yi Gang also promised in an article on Tuesday that the central bank will give play to both the aggregate and structural functions of monetary policy to precisely ramp up support for key areas and weak links in the economy.

中國(guó)人民銀行行長(zhǎng)易綱也在上周二的一篇文章中承諾，將同時(shí)發(fā)揮貨幣政策的總量和結(jié)構(gòu)功能，精準(zhǔn)加大對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域和薄弱環(huán)節(jié)的支持。

Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief China economist, said in a recent report that he expects the PBOC may slightly cut the MLF rate in the second quarter of 2023, citing the continuation of low inflation and the need to boost economic growth as the main reasons.

摩根大通首席中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱海斌在最近的一份報(bào)告中表示，他預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)人民銀行可能會(huì)在2023年第二季度小幅下調(diào)中期借貸便利操作中標(biāo)利率，主要原因是低通脹的持續(xù)和提振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的需要。

來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)

編輯：yaning