如今，人工智能變得越來越強大，在不遠的未來，機器人將會“搶走”很多人的飯碗。在人工智能的威脅面前，什么樣的工作才能稱得上真正的“鐵飯碗”呢？

Since the start of the industrial revolution, there have been threats that new machines – from mechanized looms to microchips – would usurp human jobs. For the most part, the humans have prevailed. Now, say some experts, with AI ubiquity on the horizon, the threat’s being realized: the robots really are coming for some jobs.

自從工業革命以來，人類就開始面臨飯碗被新機器搶走的威脅，從機械化織布機到微芯片。大多數時候，是人類勝出了。但如今，一些專家指出，隨著人工智能變得無處不在，這一威脅很快要變成現實：機器人真的要來搶飯碗了。

A March 2023 report from Goldman Sachs estimated that AI capable of content generation could do a quarter of all the work currently done by humans. Across the European Union and US, the report further notes, 300 million jobs could be lost to automation. And that could be dire, says Martin Ford, author of Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything.

高盛集團2023年3月的一份報告估計，生成式人工智能可以勝任目前四分之一的人類工作。報告還指出，全歐盟和全美國將有3億個崗位被自動化取代。《機器人的統治：人工智能將如何改變一切》的作者馬丁·福特表示，這將會很可怕。

"It's not just that this would happen to individuals, but it could be pretty systemic,” he says. “It could happen to a lot of people, potentially quite suddenly, potentially all at the same time. And that has implications not just for those individuals, but for the whole economy.”

他指出：“人工智能取代的不只是個人，而可能是一整個體系。很多人會失去工作，可能就在一夜之間，也可能會集體失業。這不僅會對這些個人產生影響，還會影響到整個經濟。”

Thankfully, it’s not all bad news. The experts issue their warnings with a caveat: there are still things AI isn’t capable of – tasks that involve distinctly human qualities, like emotional intelligence and outside-the-box thinking. And moving into roles that centre those skills could help lessen the chances of being replaced.

所幸的是，也不全是壞消息。專家發出的警告附有限制性條款：還有一些工作是智能機器人干不了的。這些工作帶有鮮明的人性化特征，比如需要運用到情商和創造性思維。從事這類技能為核心的職業有助于減少被替代的風險。

"I think there are generally three categories that are going to be relatively insulated in the foreseeable future,” says Ford. “The first would be jobs that are genuinely creative: you’re not doing formulaic work or just rearranging things, but you're genuinely coming up with new ideas and building something new.”

福特稱：“我認為在可預見的未來，大體上有三類職業會相對安全。第一類是真正具有創造性的工作，不是公式化工作，也不是重新排列組合，而是真的能想出新點子，造出新東西。”

That doesn’t necessarily mean all jobs that are considered ‘creative’ are safe. In fact, things like graphic design and visual art-related roles may be among the first to go; basic algorithms can direct a bot to analyse millions of images, allowing AI to master aesthetics instantly. But there’s some security in other kinds of creativity, says Ford: “in science, and medicine and law … people whose job is coming up with a new legal strategy or business strategy. I think that there's going to continue to be a place there for human beings”.

這不一定意味著所有“創造類”的工作都是安全的。事實上，平面設計和視覺藝術相關的崗位可能是最早被取代的。基本算法可以指揮機器人程序分析數百萬張圖像，從而讓智能機器人立刻成為美學大師。但是，其他的創造性工作則比較安全，福特指出：“在科學、醫學和法學領域……負責制定新法規或商業策略的人。我認為在這些領域人類依然會有一席之地。

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The second insulated category, he continues, is jobs that require sophisticated interpersonal relationships. He points to nurses, business consultants and investigative journalists. These are jobs, he says, “where you need a very deep understanding of people. I think it’ll be a long time before AI has the ability to interact in the kinds of ways that really build relationships”.

不會被人工智能搶走的第二種飯碗是人際關系比較復雜的職業。他指出，護士、商業顧問和調查記者都屬于這類職業。他說，有些職業“需要對人有深入了解。我認為在短時間內人工智能不可能具備能與人真正建立聯系的互動能力。”

The third safe zone, says Ford, “are jobs that really require lots of mobility and dexterity and problem-solving ability in unpredictable environments”. Many trade jobs – think electricians, plumbers, welders and the like – fall under this umbrella. “These are the kinds of jobs where you're dealing with a new situation all the time,” he adds. “They are probably the hardest of anything to automate.”

福特指出，安全區內的第三類職業是“需要在不可預測的環境下擁有高度的機動性和靈活性以及解決問題的能力。”許多技術工種，比如電工、水管工、焊工，都屬于這一類。福特補充道：“這類工作總是要面對新情況，很可能是最難實現自動化的。”

It’s important to note, says Ford, that an advanced education or a high-paying position is not a defence against AI takeover. “We might think the person in the white-collar job is higher on the food chain than someone who drives a car for a living,” he says. “But the white-collar employee’s future is more threatened by the Uber driver, because we still don’t have self-driving cars, but AI can certainly write reports. In many cases, more educated workers are going to be more threatened than then even the least educated workers. Think of the person that works cleaning hotel rooms – it's really hard to automate that job.”

福特說，必須指出的是，高學歷或高薪職位并不能阻止你的飯碗被人工智能搶走。他說：“我們可能以為白領工作者在食物鏈上的位置比出租車司機更高，但是白領工作者未來面臨的失業風險比出租車司機更大，因為我們現在還沒有自動駕駛汽車，但是人工智能卻肯定可以寫報告。在很多情況下，受過更多教育的勞動者面臨的威脅比沒什么文化水平的勞動者還要更大。想一想那個打掃酒店房間的人，想要把這份工作自動化還是挺難的。”

In short, seeking roles in dynamic, shifting environments that include unpredictable tasks is good way to stave off job loss to AI. At least, for a while.

簡而言之，找一份需要適應不斷發展變化的環境而且無法預知具體任務的工作是避免被人工智能搶走飯碗的好辦法。至少目前看來是如此。

英文來源：BBC

翻譯&編輯：丹妮