未來一個時期，我國國內市場主導國民經濟循環的特征會更加明顯，努力擴大居民消費、充分釋放內需潛力，成為形成強大國內市場、發揮我國超大規模市場優勢的重要方面。

Though the recent decline in deposit rates is seen as part of the country's efforts to energize consumption, economists have divided thoughts on how far the move will push consumption. Going forward, experts are calling for more forceful and prompt measures to boost consumer confidence.

盡管最近存款利率的下調被視為國家刺激消費努力的一部分，但經濟學家對此舉將在多大程度上推動消費存在分歧。展望未來，專家們呼吁采取更有力、更及時的措施來提振消費者信心。

Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomist at Everbright Securities, said that the current high level of deposits and weak household sector loans are primarily due to a decline in household risk appetites and their tendency toward precautionary savings against uncertainties.

光大證券首席宏觀經濟學家高瑞東表示，目前的高存款水平和家庭部門貸款疲軟主要是由于家庭風險偏好下降以及傾向于預防性儲蓄以應對不確定性。

"Ultimately, the restoration of consumer confidence can only rely on improvements in employment and income expectations," he said.

他說：“最終，消費者信心的恢復只能依賴于就業和收入預期的改善?！?/p>

A research report issued by GF Securities on May 28 showed that the tendency of households to keep their money in saving accounts instead of spending it is still surging. The value of outstanding household bank wealth reached 26.6 trillion yuan as of May 26, pointing to an increase of 400 billion yuan compared to April 30. Such value had already seen a significant increase of 1.2 trillion yuan in April.

廣發證券5月28日發布的一份研究報告顯示，家庭部門將錢存在儲蓄賬戶而非消費的趨勢仍在上升。截至5月26日，銀行理財存續規模達26.6萬億元，較4月30日增長4000億元。4月份，銀行理財存續規模曾大幅增長1.2萬億元。

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said it will be challenging to push for notable consumption momentum and more policy support is needed.

摩根士丹利中國首席經濟學家邢自強表示，推動消費將是一項挑戰，需要更多的政策支持。

"Structurally, consumption growth is unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. We expect the potential growth for private consumption will be 4.8 percent for the year 2024, which is slightly lower than pre-COVID-19 trend," he said, adding that the current uncertainty in employment is part of the reason behind the bumpy recovery in consumption.

他說：“從結構上看，消費增長不太可能恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。預計2024年民間消費的潛在增長率為4.8%，略低于新冠疫情前的趨勢?！彼a充說，目前就業的不確定性是消費復蘇不穩定的原因之一。

More direct and prompt policy support is therefore required to fuel the consumption market and more effectively boost this year's growth, experts said. Gao suggested that a large-scale government issuance of consumer vouchers could have a more direct impact on the retail spending than a lower deposit rate.

因此，專家們表示，需要更直接、更及時的政策支持來刺激消費市場，更有效地促進今年的經濟增長。高瑞東建議，相較于降低存款利率，政府大規模發行消費券可能會對零售業消費產生更直接的影響。

"Since the employment situation among young people remains severe and the willingness of spending among households remains unstable, the consumption sector may see an uneven recovery this year," he said. "We believe that a large-scale issuance of consumption vouchers is feasible to quickly drive growth."

他說：“由于青年群體就業形勢嚴峻，居民消費意愿尚未企穩，今年消費領域的恢復可能出現分化。我們認為，大規模發放消費券對于快速推動經濟增長是可行的?！?/p>

He suggested that consumption vouchers worth 300 billion yuan be distributed to households.

他建議向家庭發放價值3000億元的消費券。

"Such an amount of vouchers will generate an additional 1 trillion yuan in consumption, contributing to a 0.62 percentage point increase in GDP growth," Gao said.

他說：“若發放3000億消費券，可撬動1萬億消費增量，拉動GDP增長0.62個百分點?！?/p>

He said that the stimulus effect of issuing consumption vouchers can be significantly higher in underdeveloped regions than in developed regions. In addition, the issuance of these coupons can lean more heavily toward low-income and unemployed groups, who can use the coupons for daily essentials in retail and living.

他說，欠發達地區發放消費券的刺激效果明顯高于發達地區。此外，這些消費券的發行可以更多地向低收入和失業群體傾斜，他們可以使用這些消費券購買零售品和生活必需品。

Targeted consumption vouchers can be distributed in sectors like dining, accommodations, tourism and autos, catering to the specific consumption needs of different groups, Gao added.

他補充說，消費券可以按類別在餐飲、住宿、旅游和汽車等領域發放，以滿足不同群體的特定消費需求。

來源：中國日報

編輯：yaning