> Researchers predict global warming may intensify Mei-yu weather

研究人員預測全球變暖可能加劇梅雨天氣

Mei-yu is an important wet weather phenomenon in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley region of China, generally lasting from June 15 to July 10 each year. It has a wide impact on agriculture, the economy, and people's lives.

梅雨是長江中下游地區的一種重要潮濕天氣現象，一般持續時間為每年的6月15日至7月10日，對農業、經濟和人們的生活有著廣泛影響。

Chinese researchers predicted recently that rising global temperatures would cause more intense Mei-yu in the region.

近日，中國研究人員預測，全球變暖將加劇中國長江流域地區的梅雨天氣。

The researchers from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology investigated changes in the characteristics of Mei-yu under global warming and the potential reasons based on observation and reanalysis of data from between 1961 and 2022.

南京信息工程大學研究人員根據1961年至2022年的觀測和再分析數據，研究了全球變暖下梅雨特征的變化及其潛在原因。

According to their recent research article published in the journal National Science Review, notable increasing long-term trends are detected in the number of days without rainfall, the intensity of rainfall events, and the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River valley region during the Mei-yu period over past decades.

據他們發布在《國家科學評論》的相關成果顯示，在過去幾十年中，長江流域地區梅雨期無降雨日數、降雨強度以及極端降雨事件的頻率和強度都呈現出顯著的長期增長趨勢。

The researchers found that the number of days without rainfall, intensity of rainfall events, and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase in the Yangtze River valley region during the Mei-yu period under the two degrees Celsius warming scenario.

研究人員發現，在全球變暖2℃的情景下，長江流域地區梅雨期無降雨日數、降雨事件強度和極端降水事件頻率都將增加。

Overall, the intensity of rainfall events during the Mei-yu period has the most significant response to climate change in observations and projections.

總體而言，在觀測和預測中，梅雨期降雨強度對氣候變化的響應最為顯著。

> Chinese economy to grow about 5.2% in 2023

中國銀行研究院報告：預計全年GDP增速為5.2%左右

BOC Research Institute, the research unit of Bank of China, predicted that the Chinese economy will grow about 5.7 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, to achieve yearly growth of around 5.2 percent this year, above the official annual growth target of 5 percent.

據中國銀行研究院預計，今年四季度中國經濟將同比增長5.7%左右，全年增長5.2%左右，超過官方預期的5%的全年增長目標。

Services consumption potential will continue to be unleashed, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, and high-tech and private manufacturing investment will also grow to enhance manufacturing investment, said the 2023 Q4 Economic and Financial Outlook released by the institute on Sunday.

中國銀行研究院近日發布的《2023年四季度經濟金融展望報告》指出，服務消費潛力將持續釋放，基建投資有望提速，高技術制造業和民間制造業也有望支撐制造業投資平穩增長。

That means the endogenous growth momentum of the Chinese economy will gain more steam, it added.

報告補充說，這意味著中國經濟內生增長動力將得到改善。

The report predicted that consumption would grow 10 percent and 7.8 percent on a yearly basis, respectively, in the fourth quarter and in 2023.

報告預計2023年四季度消費同比增長10%左右，全年增長7.8%左右。

However, weak external demand and remaining profitability pressure, in conjunction with the ongoing inventory destocking cycle, will somehow impact the willingness and capability of market entities to expand investment in manufacturing.

不過，報告也指出，外需承壓、企業利潤下滑疊加去庫存周期尚未結束，這將在一定程度上制約制造業整體投資意愿和能力。

Besides, uncertainties remain in real estate market recovery, although recently released policies are expected to help stabilize real estate sales to some extent, the report said.

此外，盡管最近出臺的政策有望在一定程度上助推房地產銷售企穩，但房地產市場復蘇仍存在不確定性。

The report also suggested China give full play to the enormous domestic market to keep expanding effective demand, stimulate the vitality of private capital, and promote industrial transformation and upgrades.

報告還建議，中國應發揮好國內超大規模市場作用，持續擴大有效需求，激發社會資本活力，推動產業轉型升級。

Fiscal policies should become more proactive and effective, playing a bigger role in stabilizing growth while expanding demand, while also paying attention to preventing risks, the report said.

同時，財政政策需要持續加力提效，在穩增長、擴需求方面擔當更重要的角色，同時注意防范風險。

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