盡管外部環境復雜嚴峻，世界經濟陷入滯脹風險上升，國內經濟恢復基礎尚不牢固，但是我國經濟韌性強、潛力大、活力足、長期向好基本面沒有改變。隨著疫情防控轉入新階段，各項政策不斷落實落細，生產生活秩序有望加快恢復，經濟增長內生動力將不斷積聚增強。

China's economy has shown signs of resilience and vitality, and is set to rebound strongly in 2023 with a gradual pickup in domestic demand, including consumption and investment, according to economists.

經濟學家表示，中國經濟已經顯示出韌性和充滿活力的跡象，并將在2023年出現強勁反彈，包括消費和投資在內的國內需求將逐步回升。

They said the world's second-largest economy will likely see economic prospects improve noticeably in the second quarter given the optimized COVID-19 containment measures. Private consumption and infrastructure spending will be the key drivers of the rebound.

他們表示，由于新冠疫情防控措施的優化，中國的經濟前景可能會在第二季度顯著改善。私人消費和基礎設施支出將是經濟復蘇的主要推動力。

"China's growth potential remains strong," said Lin Jianhai, vice-president of the International Finance Forum (IFF).

“中國的增長潛力依然強勁，”國際金融論壇副理事長林建海表示。

Even though the economy will likely face some difficulties in the first few months of the year, growth, particularly in consumption, is expected to pick up from the second quarter as waves of COVID-19 subside, Lin, who is also former secretary of the International Monetary Fund, told China Daily.

曾擔任國際貨幣基金組織秘書長的林建海在接受《中國日報》采訪時表示，盡管中國經濟在今年頭幾個月可能會面臨一些困難，但隨著新冠疫情的消退，經濟增長，尤其是消費增長，預計將從第二季度開始回升。

"For the year, various projections point to a growth rate of about 5 percent or even higher (in China)," he added.

他補充說：“今年，各種預測都指出，中國經濟增長率將達到約5%甚至更高。”

The tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded in mid-December, has sent a clear signal that reviving the COVID-hit economy and bringing GDP growth back within a reasonable range will be a major task of the government.

2022年12月中旬閉幕的中央經濟工作會議發出了明確信號，即重振受疫情影響的經濟，使國內生產總值增長回到合理區間，將是政府的主要任務。

China's pro-growth stance and the optimization of COVID-19 control measures have cheered investors and analysts. Many economists and banks have recently upgraded their forecasts for China's growth prospects to above 5 percent for this year.

中國穩增長的立場和疫情防控措施的優化令投資者和分析師感到振奮。許多經濟學家和銀行最近都將他們對中國今年經濟增長前景的預測上調至5%以上。

Morgan Stanley recently raised its forecast for China's economic growth this year from 5.4 percent to 5.7 percent, saying a robust cyclical recovery can occur despite lingering structural headwinds.

摩根士丹利最近將今年中國經濟增長預期從5.4%上調至5.7%，稱盡管結構性不利因素猶存，但強勁的周期性復蘇仍可能出現。

Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's chief investment officer, said China could see economic prospects improve by the spring.

摩根士丹利財富管理公司首席投資官麗莎?沙利特表示，到春季，中國經濟前景可能會有所改善。

Shalett said that China's growth prospects could also have positive spillover effects for other economies in Asia and Latin America in 2023 in areas such as exports and tourism.

沙利特表示，2023年，中國的增長前景也可能在出口和旅游等領域對亞洲和拉丁美洲的其他經濟體產生積極的溢出效應。

Local governments have voiced optimism for a robust 2023 upon expectations of a gradual recovery in domestic activity.

由于預計國內經濟活動將逐步復蘇，地方政府對2023年的強勁增長表示樂觀。

China's 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have set their growth target for this year within a range of 4 percent to 9.5 percent, with most of them targeting around 6 percent.

中國31個省區市將今年經濟增長預期目標確定在4%至9.5%之間，大多數省區市的預期目標在6%左右。

Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank, said that localities have given priority to the expansion of domestic demand, saying more efforts will be made to spur consumption, continuously deepen reforms, accelerate industrial upgrading and promote high-quality development.

中國光大銀行分析師周茂華表示，各地已經把擴大內需放在了優先位置，并表示將加大力度刺激消費，不斷深化改革，加快產業升級，促進高質量發展。

The four provinces with the highest economic volume — Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang — have all targeted annual growth of around 5 percent for this year. Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang set their growth targets at "above 5 percent", while Jiangsu vowed to reach a growth rate of around 5 percent.

經濟總量最大的四個省份——廣東、江蘇、山東和浙江——今年的經濟增長目標都在5%左右。廣東、山東和浙江將其增長目標設定為“5%以上”，而江蘇的目標是5%左右。

"China will likely post above 5 percent economic growth in 2023 given the further implementation of optimized COVID control measures, a package of stimulus policies taking effect gradually and the low comparison base in the previous year," Zhou added.

周茂華補充說：“考慮到疫情防控措施進一步優化，一攬子刺激政策逐步生效，以及前一年基數比較低，2023年中國經濟增長可能會超過5%。”

來源：中國日報

編輯：yaning