隨著更好統籌疫情防控和經濟社會發展，我國實體商業人氣回暖，線上零售增勢不減，餐飲、電影票房復蘇強勁，節日市場繁榮有序。持續升溫的假日消費，彰顯中國市場的潛力和韌性。

China's economic recovery is on the right track and the recovery of consumption of services has gotten off to a strong start, said experts at foreign institutions.

外國機構專家表示，中國經濟復蘇步入正軌，服務業消費復蘇開局強勁。

The country's offline consumer service sectors like tourism, movies and catering, which were severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, saw a strong rebound in demand during the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday in late January, said Fitch Ratings.

惠譽評級表示，受新冠肺炎疫情嚴重打擊的旅游、電影和餐飲等線下消費服務行業，在1月底春節黃金周期間需求強勁反彈。

Domestic tourist trips during the holiday jumped 23.1 percent year-on-year, recovering to around 90 percent of the pre-pandemic level during the same period of 2019, while tourism spending rose 30 percent year-on-year. Cinema box-office receipts achieved the second-highest take on record, and the number of tickets sold was only slightly below the 2019 level, according to official figures.

今年春節假期期間，我國國內旅游人次同比增長23.1%，恢復到疫情前2019年同期水平的90%左右，旅游消費同比增長30%。官方數據顯示，2023年春節檔票房成績位居中國影史第二，觀影人次僅略低于2019年的水平。

National retail and catering revenues reported by key enterprises increased 6.8 percent year-on-year. Dine-in consumption at restaurants and eateries grew strongly by 15.4 percent year-on-year, with average restaurant spending up 10.8 percent, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

全國重點企業零售和餐飲收入同比增長6.8%。根據商務部的數據，堂食消費額同比大增15.4%，餐館平均消費額增長了10.8%。

Darius Tang, associate director of corporates at Fitch Bohua, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said: "The decisive factor of China's economic growth in 2023 is the degree of consumption recovery, which depends on the strength of the stimulus policies and how COVID-19 would evolve. Even though these are still uncertain, the expansion of consumption scenarios triggered by the adjustment of pandemic control measures has a very definite and positive effect on the recovery of consumption."

惠譽評級子公司惠譽博華工商企業部副總監唐大千表示：“2023年中國經濟增長的決定性因素是消費復蘇的程度，這取決于刺激政策的力度以及新冠病毒將如何變異。盡管這些仍存在不確定性，但疫情防控措施調整引發的消費場景擴大對消費復蘇具有非常明確和積極的影響。”

Lu Ting, Nomura's chief China economist, said, "As sequential GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was much faster than we had expected, and as China's population seems to be reaching herd immunity quickly following the reopening in early December, we are raising our 2023 annual GDP growth forecast to 5.3 percent from 4.8 percent."

野村證券中國首席經濟學家陸挺表示：“由于中國2022年四季度GDP環比增速遠超預期，并且在2022年12月初迎來重新開放后，國內建立免疫屏障的速度快于預期，我們將對2023年全年GDP增速的預期從4.8%上調至5.3%。”

The country's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in January, up from 47 in December, ending three months of contraction. Thanks to recovery of the services sector, nonmanufacturing business activity index significantly increased to 54.4 from 41.6, much better than the expected 51.5.

1月份，中國公布的制造業采購經理人指數（PMI）升至50.1，高于去年12月的47，結束了連續3個月的收縮。得益于服務業的復蘇，非制造業商務活動指數從41.6大幅上升至54.4，遠好于預期的51.5。

The January rebound in PMI is in line with consumption figures during the Lunar New Year holiday, demonstrating a strong recovery in the Chinese economy. More importantly, the number of COVID-19 infections did not rebound significantly during the holiday, paving the way for further normalization of production and consumption activities, said the UBS Chief Investment Office.

1月份PMI的反彈與春節期間的消費數據相符，表明中國經濟強勁復蘇。瑞銀首席投資辦公室表示，更重要的是，新冠肺炎感染人數在假期期間沒有明顯反彈，為生產和消費活動的進一步正常化鋪平了道路。

This year, although slower exports will have a negative impact on China's economic growth, consumption growth in the country is expected to rebound to about 7 percent. In addition, investment is likely to stabilize at around 5.5 percent. Combined, these factors will hopefully drive the full-year economic growth to about 5 percent, said analysts at the UBS CIO.

今年，盡管出口放緩將對中國經濟增長產生負面影響，但中國的消費增長預計將反彈至7%左右。另外，投資也有可能穩定在5.5%左右。瑞銀首席投資辦公室的分析師說，綜合這些因素，有望推動全年經濟增長達到5%左右。

來源：中國日報

編輯：yaning